HAS PAPUA NEW GUINEA BECOME A FAILED STATE? FROM LAWLESSNESS TO CHAOS

Warlords with unlicenced in a rage to fight in a tribal conflict

by Lucas Kiap

Advocate for National Security Reform | Contact: kiaplucas@gmail.com

This article is part of a series proposing strategies to secure PNG’s future. For detailed policy frameworks, email the author.

Papua New Guinea (PNG), a nation of unparalleled cultural richness and natural resources, is confronting a crisis that threatens its very existence as a functional state. Defined by its inability to monopolize legitimate force, deliver basic services, and uphold the social contract between government and citizens, a “failed state” is not a label any nation aspires to. Yet as tribal massacres, systemic corruption, and institutional decay engulf PNG, the question can no longer be ignored: Is this Pacific nation spiralling into failure?

A Descent into Chaos

The horrors unfolding in Hela and Enga Provinces—where tribal violence has escalated into massacres of men, women, and children—offer a harrowing snapshot of state collapse. Villages reduced to ashes, bodies left unburied, and survivors fleeing unimaginable brutality underscore the government’s catastrophic failure to protect its people. These conflicts, rooted in historical grievances, are now supercharged by the influx of illegal firearms and the state’s glaring absence. Security forces, tasked with restoring order, are often complicit: reports of police aiding armed groups, ignoring pleas for help, or acting as “judge, jury, and executioner” have shattered public trust. Meanwhile, corruption drains resources meant for security and development, leaving institutions like the judiciary backlogged and impotent. For communities in Enga and Hela, the government’s Vision 2050—a promise of a “smart, happy, and healthy society”—rings hollow when survival is the daily imperative.

Institutional Collapse and Corruption

PNG’s crisis is not merely one of lawlessness but of systemic institutional failure. The police and military, riddled with misconduct, operate with impunity. The Ombudsman Commission and the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC), designed to check power abuses, are hamstrung by political interference and underfunding. Corruption, treated as a petty crime rather than treason, has become a parallel economy: stolen public funds deprive citizens of healthcare, education, and infrastructure. This rot extends to the highest levels, with elites prioritizing patronage over governance. The result is a vicious cycle: without functional institutions, violence festers; without security, development stalls; without development, despair deepens.

A Roadmap for Survival

To avert total collapse, PNG must adopt radical, immediate reforms. Central to this is recognizing corruption, police brutality, and tribal violence as existential threats. A proposed “Threat Level-Based Reform” strategy could prioritize these challenges through institutional overhauls, resource reallocation, and accountability. Key steps include:

1. Declaring Corruption Treasonous: Establish an anti-corruption court with powers to prosecute graft at all levels and recover stolen assets. Redirect reclaimed funds to security and social services.

2. Reforming Security Forces: Create an independent oversight body to investigate police and military misconduct. Retrain personnel, prosecute abuses, and rebuild trust through monthly public reports on prosecutions.

3. Disarming Conflict Zones: Deploy elite police-military units to tribal hotspots to disarm militias, arrest warlords, and fast-track justice via emergency tribunals.

4. Reviving Local Solutions: Empower provincial governors and traditional leaders to broker ceasefires and revive indigenous conflict-resolution practices. Pair this with grassroots job programs to tackle unemployment—a key driver of youth recruitment into gangs and tribal warfare.

The Role of Citizens and the World

PNG’s government cannot act alone. Communities must reject cycles of vengeance, while activists and media must hold leaders accountable. The international community, particularly Australia and regional partners, should tie aid to measurable anti-corruption and security benchmarks.

A Choice Between Two Futures

The massacres in Hela and Enga are not isolated tragedies but symptoms of a state unravelling. PNG stands at a crossroads: one path leads to reform, where institutions are rebuilt, and Vision 2050 becomes more than a slogan. The other leads to failure—a dystopia of perpetual violence, economic ruin, and global marginalization. The time for decisive action is now. Without it, PNG risks becoming a cautionary tale of a nation that failed its people.